Some of the model guidance continues to pick up on potential tropical development in the Western Gulf of Mexico between June 18th and 21st.
Models: The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NAVGEM models are all forecasting an area of low pressure to form in the Western or Southwestern Gulf early next week. And some of the guidance – particularly the GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM are forecasting this low to develop into a tropical depression or storm.
The latest run of the GFS is forecasting a weak area of low pressure to develop over Bay of Campeche (BOC) by next Tuesday, June 19th, 2016. From there the GFS develops the low into a weak tropical depression or storm and moves it into Southern Mexico.
Meanwhile, the CMC and NAVGEM models are forecasting an area of low pressure to form over the Southwestern Gulf as early as Saturday, June 18th, 2016. From there they strengthen it into a tropical storm and move it Westward towards the Western Gulf Coast. However, keep in mind that these models are not nearly as reliable as the GFS and ECMWF.
Lastly, the ECMWF is forecasting a weak area of low pressure to develop in the BOC on Tuesday, June 18th, 2016. The ECMWF then strengthens the low slightly before moving it into Mexico. It does not develop it into a tropical depression or storm.
In addition, some of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members are also forecasting scenarios similar to the GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM scenarios.
Our thoughts: We believe that there is some potential for tropical development in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week. But, overall we still believe the potential is low and do not expect tropical development next week.
However, it is something that we will keep an eye on throughout the remainder of this week. If the models come into better agreement and become more consistent we will have another update out on Thursday.
You can follow us on Facebook and Twitter for future updates.
