A tropical wave located over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula has been tagged as invest 94-L this morning.
Development odds: Invest 94-L does have some potential to develop over the Bay of Campeche over the next three to four days.
However, it does have three factors working against it. The first will be its close proximity to land; the second is that wind shear will only be marginally conductive for development; and the third is its limited time it will have over water.
Presently the National Hurricane Center places 94-L’s development odds at 40% over the next two days and five days.
Model guidance: The majority of the model guidance is not really developing 94-L much. The GFS and ECMWF are both forecasting a weak surface low to develop over the BOC by tomorrow. They then forecast it to move West. Eventually they move it onshore of the East Coast of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday as nothing more than a weak area of low pressure.
Meanwhile, the CMC and NAVGEM are forecasting a surface low to develop over the BOC tomorrow as well. However, the CMC and NAVGEM then forecast 94-L to develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Monday. They then forecast it to move onshore of the East Coast of Mexico on Tuesday.
Our thoughts: We believe that 94-L has at least a 50/50 chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the Bay of Campeche over the next three or four days. The main factors working against it will be proximity to land, limited time over water, and only marginally favorable wind shear. However, tropical system can spin up quickly in the BOC even in marginally favorable conditions.
Regardless of development, invest 94-L will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to parts of Mexico’s East Coast. If 94-L does develop it will not pose any threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
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