Invest 96-l has become slightly better organized today; and not much has changed with invest 97-l since our previous update yesterday.
We will start by discussing Invest 96-l first.
Invest 96-L
Invest 96-l is still located over the far Eastern Tropical Atlantic at 11.9 degrees north and 24.9 degrees west and is moving to the west. 96-l presently has maximum sustained winds of 30mph and a minimum central pressure of 1010 millibars.
96-l has become slightly better organized since yesterday. Thunderstorm activity has become more consistent and organized; however, it is still lacking a closed circulation. The National Hurricane Center has acknowledged this and they have bumped 96-l’s odds of developing up slightly to 50% over the next five days.
Overall, it does appear likely that has a decent chance at developing into at least a tropical depression over the next two days.
Most of the model guidance forecasts 96-l to move to the west or west-northwest over the next few days; and some do bring it to tropical depression strength. However, if it doesn’t develop within the next two days it will run into higher wind shear and a drier environment and will likely fail to develop.
So, overall 96-l poses little to no threat to the United States or Caribbean.
Invest 97-L
Invest 97-l is located over the Central Tropical Atlantic at 14 degrees north and 42.9 degrees west moving west. It has 30mph winds and minimum pressure 1010 millibars.
Not much has changed with 97-l since yesterday. It remains rather disorganized; however, it does have some shower and thunderstorm activity. The National Hurricane Center is only giving it a 30% chance of developing over the next five days.
Development of 97-l is still not imminent; and it has several inhibiting factors that it will have to deal with over the next 3 to 4 days. The first factor inhibiting development is dry air surrounding 97-l. It is also moving west at a fairly good clip which is also limiting any potential development.
Then, by Sunday and Monday 97-l will be move into the Eastern Caribbean where the environment should be moister. In addition, 97-l will likely begin to slow some. But, at the same time wind shear will also increase in the Eastern Caribbean and will likely continue to limit significant development of 97-l.
However, by early next week model guidance is forecasting 97-l to move into the Northwestern Caribbean and possibly the Southern where The environmental conditions could be more favorable for development. The more favorable conditions could allow 97-l to develop in either the Northwestern Caribbean or Southern Gulf. This is what the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS ensembles are forecasting.
Although, it is important to note that this is not a sure thing; and it is just something to monitor over the next several days.
We will have another update out on both of these systems tomorrow.
