Invest 97-l is still located over the Eastern Caribbean this morning just South of Hispaniola. 97-l presently has winds of 40pmh and a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars.
Overall 97-l has become significantly better organized since yesterday. It now has a discernable circulation that is becoming better defined; It has slowed down some; it has maintained a decent amount of thunderstorms activity; and wind shear has decreased significantly as well.
As a result, the National Hurricane Center gave 97-l an 80% chance of developing within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of developing within the next five days in thier 8:00am EDT tropical weather outlook. They also stated that “If this development trend continues, a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight.”
Forecast for 97-l
Invest 97-l will continue to organize today and likely be upgraded to tropical storm Earl later today or tonight.
Most of the model guidance then forecasts it to move east and gradually strengthen or at least maintain its current intensity throughout the day today.
Then, by the time it reaches the Western Caribbean late tomorrow or Wednesday it should strengthen a good bit. In fact, it could potentially strengthen to a strong tropical storm or low end category one hurricane before making landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. This is what the latest HWRF, GFDL, and ECWWF model are forecasting.
From there it will either get buried in Mexico and die or move out over the Southwestern Gulf and re-strengthen. At this time the latte appears slightly more likely.
However, there is about a 50/50 chance of both occurring. A stronger storm would take the latter track into the Gulf and a weaker storm would take the more southern track. It’s still too early to know where 97-l would go if it takes the more northern track into the Gulf. However, it looks like there would be little threat to the Texas Gulf Coast at this time; but can’t be completely ruled out at this time. The chances are very low though.
Another wave that needs to be monitored
There is another fairly large and strong tropical wave that emerged off of Africa today. This wave will bear watching towards the end of this week and early next week as the GFS and CMC along with a large number of the GFS ensemble members develop it once it gets into the Eastern Caribbean.
Nothing official on it from the National Hurricane Center yet; just wanted to mention it.
We will have another update out on 97-l later this afternoon or evening if 97-l gets upgraded to Earl.
