Tropical development will be possible across the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week.
An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a trough of low pressure. And it appears likely that a surface low will develop in association with this system by Monday or Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure over the Eastern US will likely cause the low to stall out over the Gulf just south of the Florida Panhandle.
Warm waters, relatively low wind shear, and lack of dry air combined with the low being essentially stationary could allow for it to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by the middle of next week.
This is the scenario the last few runs of the ECMWF, UKMET and CMC have been advertising. In addition, the ECMWF ensemble members are also forecasting a 50 – 60% chance of tropical development in the Northeastern Gulf next week.
As of their 8:00AM EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center is giving the low a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next five days.
Please keep in mind that development is not a sure thing and the chances of development are low at this time.
Regardless of development, the low will bring extremely heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida that will likely cause flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 8 – 12” of rainfall across parts of the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast next week with the ECMWF forecasting amounts double that.
We will have another update out tomorrow.
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