Tropical development will be possible across the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend through next week.
An area of disturbed weather developed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico yesterday in association with a trough of low pressure. A surface low is forecast to develop in association with this area of disturbed weather by Monday or Tuesday and remain nearly stationary through late next week.
Warm waters, low wind shear, and lack of dry air combined with the low being nearly stationary could allow for the development of a tropical cyclone if the low remains over water.
The last several runs of the UKMET, CMC, ECMWF and many ECMWF ensemble members have been forecasting the low to remain over water long enough to take advantage of the aforementioned factors and develop.
However, the GFS has been forecasting the low to hug the Northeastern Gulf Coast or remain inland preventing development.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds will be likely across the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa Florida over the next week beginning tomorrow from the Big Bend area to Tampa, Florida and on Monday and Tuesday for areas West of there.
The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting rainfall totals will likely be between 15 and 20” along the immediate coast with totals of 6 – 12” inland. However, there could be locally higher amounts. These rainfall totals will likely lead to flash flooding.
In addition, winds could gust to 30 – 45mph along the coast closer to the low. The gusts could be much higher if the low develops into a tropical storm.
We will have another update out tomorrow.
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