Fiona Weakening; Invest 99-L Likely to Develop Early Next Week

Tropical Storm Fiona is weakening this evening. Meanwhile, invest 99-L appears poised to develop early next week before entering the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Fiona

As of the 11:00pm EDT advisory Tropical Storm Fiona was located over the Central Tropical Atlantic at 18.7 degrees north and 45.5 degreeswest. Maximum sustained winds were 40mph, the minimum central pressure was 1007 millibars, and movement was to the west-northwest.

Forecast for Fiona

Tropical Storm Fiona is expected to being weakening tomorrow and should be back down to tropical depression status late tomorrow or Sunday.  Fiona is expected to continue on it’s west-northwest course eventually turning to the northwest and heading out to sea.

Overall, Fiona will not impact any land masses.

Invest 99-L

Invest 99-l is another story.

As of 8:00pm EDT invest 99-L was located over the far Eastern Tropical Atlantic at 10.5 degrees north and 33.3 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 30 miles per hour, the minimum central pressure was 1009 millibars, and movement was to the west.

Forecast for 99-L

Immediate development of invest 99-L is not likely as environmental are presently unfavorable for development. Although, 99-L will continue moving to the west throughout this weekend.

Conditions are expected to become more conductive for the development of 99-L by Monday or Tuesday when 99-L reaches 50 degrees west. From there 99-L is expected to track into the Eastern Caribbean by mid-week next week.

It is unknown if 99-L will develop into a tropical depression or storm prior to entering the Eastern Caribbean. However, the majority of the latest model guidance does forecast 99-l to reach at least tropical depression strength prior to entering the Eastern Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center gave 99-L a 50% chance of developing over the next five days in their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook.

At the moment it is to early to speculate on potential track and intensity beyond five days as there is still a chance 99-L will not develop.

However, if 99-L does develop [the odds of it doing so are high] the latest models indicate that there is a chance that whatever becomes of 99-L could end up in the vicinity of the Bahamas next weekend after it moves through the Eastern Caribbean.

Of course, this will all change over the next several days as things evolve and is all speculation at this point.

If 99-L develops it will be named Gaston.

Summary

To summarize, invest 99-l will likely develop within the next 5 days and move into the Eastern Caribbean by mid-week next week.

By next weekend 99-L could potentially be in the vicinity of the Bahamas as a tropical cyclone if it develops. However, at this time it is nothing to worry about and is simply something to keep an eye on.

We will have another update out tomorrow. 

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