It is now looking increasingly likely that invest 99-L will develop in the Bahamas later this week.
As of 8:00pm EDT invest 99-L was located over the Western Tropical Atlantic just east of the Greater Antilles at 16.5 degrees north and 58.9 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 35 miles per hour, the minimum central pressure was 1009 millibars, and movement was to the west-northwest.
Forecast for 99-L
Invest 99-L has maintained a modest amount of thunderstorm activity throughout the day; and it appears 99-L has become slightly better organized. But, overall, 99-L remains relatively disorganized despite the slight increase in organization.
99-L will move through the Northeastern Caribbean tomorrow and possibly into early Thursday. Significant development of 99-L is not expected during this time due to only marginally favorable environmental conditions; However, some additional slight organization is possible.
Invest 99-L is forecast to track into the Bahamas late Thursday or early Friday. This is concerning, as environmental conditions could – and most likely will be – more conductive for 99-L to develop into a tropical depression or storm.
At this time, the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM all develop invest 99-L in the Bahamas by Saturday or Sunday. In addition, many of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members also develop invest 99-L over the Bahamas this weekend.
However, development is still not guaranteed.
In their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center placed 99-L’s chances of developing at 50% over the next 48 hours and 70% over the next five days.
If invest 99-L does develop [development looks more likely than not at the moment] the general consensus among the models is that a strong ridge of high pressure will force what could potentially be tropical storm”Hermine” into Southern or Central Florida, and possibly into the Gulf of Mexico from there.
However, uncertainty is still high regarding the evolution of invest 99-L over the next five days and beyond. There are many variables at play, and development of 99-L is not guaranteed and therefor details regarding potential track, strength, and impacts are unknown.
If you want an in depth discussion regarding these variables and the potential outcome you should watch this video from Levi Cowan, the owner of Tropical Tidbits.
However, bear in mind the thoughts expressed in Levi’s video and in this article are by no means official.
At this time invest 99-L is still nothing to panic over, although it is worth keeping an eye on is you live in along in Florida, along the Eastern Gulf Coast, or US East Coast.
We will have another update out tomorrow morning.
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