Invest 99-L’s chances of developing tomorrow or Saturday and then impacting South or Central Florida on Sunday or Monday remain high.
As of 8:00am EDT invest 99-L was located just north if Hispaniola. Maximum sustained winds were 40mph, the minimum central pressure was 1008 millibars, and movement was to the west-northwest.
Forecast for 99-L
Overall, invest 99-L remains disorganized this morning; and satellite data and data from a USAF hurricane hunter plane indicates that 99-L is still lacking a well defined center. The main reason 99-L remains so disorganized is because a band of moderate to high wind shear is currently impacting it.
However, as we stated in our update last night – significant development of 99-L was not expected overnight and throughout much of the day today.
Wind shear is expected to become favorable for the development of 99-L by tonight and tomorrow when it reaches the Bahamas. This will likely allow 99-L to develop into a tropical storm by tomorrow or Saturday.
The latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and HWRF continue to develop 99-L into a tropical storm over the Bahamas by tomorrow or Saturday. Most of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members remain in agreement with the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and HWRF.
In their 8:00am EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave invest 99-L an 50% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 80% chance of developing over the next 5 days.
NOTE: Development of 99-L is still not guaranteed.
Potential track
If 99-L develops into a tropical storm tomorrow or Saturday the consensus is still for it to track very near South Florida or through the Florida Straits before entering the Gulf on Monday or Tuesday.
There is also a chance 99-L could track across South Florida as a tropical storm on Sunday before moving into the Southeast or East Gulf of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday.
However, At this time it looks more likely that 99-L will track very near South Florida or go through the Florida Straits.
NOTE: There is still a large degree of uncertainty regarding the potential track of 99-L beyond the next 4 – 5 days.
Potential intensity
There is still a great amount of uncertainty regarding the potential intensity of 99-L – especially beyond the next 4 – 5 days. Although, we can say that with a degree of confidence that 99-L will likely impact South Florida as a moderate to strong tropical storm.
Once 99-L gets into the Gulf (which looks very likely at this time) there likely won’t be anything to impede it from strengthening into a hurricane.
NOTE: There is still a great amount of uncertainty regarding the potential intensity of 99-L – especially beyond the next 4 – 5 days.
Summary
The bottom line is that 99-L will likely develop into a tropical storm over the Bahamas tomorrow or Saturday and will likely impact South Florida on Sunday as a moderate to strong tropical storm and track into the Southeast Gulf on Monday or Tuesday where it will likely strengthen.
99-L remains nothing to panic over.
However, if you live in South Florida you should review your hurricane evacuation plans and supplies as watches and warnings could be issued as early as tomorrow.
If you live along the Northern/Central Gulf Coast you should monitor the progress of 99-L over the next several days.
NOTE: It is important to note that the forecast evolution of 99-L is still very uncertain at this point. Although, it does appear to be the most likely outcome.
We will have another update out on 99-L tonight.
