Invest 99-L still has a high chance of developing over the next several days.
As of 8:00pm EDT invest 99-L was located just to the Northeast of Puerto Rico at 18.7 degrees north and 65.4 degrees west. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, a minimum central pressure of 1009 millibars, and was moving west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour.
Development Chances for 99-L
Invest 99-L had become better organized overnight last night. However, that increase in organization did not last.
Presently 99-L is still a very broad, disorganized low that is lacking a well defined center of circulation; and it won’t be able to develop further until it is able to develop and maintain a well defined center of circulation.
The chances of this occurring within the next 24 – 36 hours are relatively low, but not zero as environmental conditions will only be marginally favorable for the development of 99-L during this time.
However, there is a very high chance that 99-L will develop a well defined center sometime between late tomorrow and Saturday in the Central or Northwestern Bahamas allowing it to develop into a tropical depression or storm.
The latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and HWRF all develop invest 99-L into a tropical depression or storm over the Bahamas between late tomorrow and Saturday. In addition, most of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members develop 99-L between late tomorrow and Saturday as well.
In their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave invest 99-L a 50% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 80% chance of developing over the next 5 days.
Potential track for 99-L over the next 5 days
If 99-L develops (remains more likely to develop then not) the consensus among the latest models is still for 99-L to track into Southern or Central Florida on Sunday or Monday and then track into the East or Southeast Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
It is still too early to discuss details regarding track beyond Tuesday.
Potential intensity
We won’t elaborate on potential intensity in the short or long term.
However, If 99-L develops (remains more likely to develop then not) it would likely be a tropical storm – potentially a strong – before making a potential landfall (if it develops) in South or Central Florida. From there it would have the potential to strengthen – potentially into a hurricane – over the Southeast or East Gulf of Mexico.
Summary
Overall invest 99-L has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the Bahamas over the next several days. If 99-L develops it will likely impact South or Central Florida on Sunday or Monday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Beyond five days things become very uncertain and therefor we will not discuss potential track, intensity, and impacts beyond five days.
NOTE: It is important to keep in mind that development off 99-L is still not completely guaranteed.
The bottom line is that plenty of uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of 99-L over the next few days and it remains nothing to panic over.
However, if you live in South or Central Florida you should be prepared for a potential tropical cyclone making landfall on Sunday or Monday. Ideally you should check your hurricane supplies and go over your evacuation plan. It never hurts to be prepared.
If you live along the North/Central Gulf Coast you should closely monitor the progress of 99-L over the next few days.
We will have another update out tomorrow morning.
