Invest 99-L remains very disorganized this evening, and it’s chances of development have decreased slightly. However it can’t be written written of completely yet.
Development odds
As stated above, invest 99-L’s chances of developing over the next several days have decreased and it remains very disorganized this evening due to a persistent band of moderate to high wind shear that continues to impact it.
This is not surprising, as most models – namely the reliable ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF -didn’t have 99-L organizing substantially until tomorrow or Saturday when it reached more favorable environmental conditions in the Bahamas.
However, this no longer appears to be the case as environmental conditions are no longer expected to be conductive in the Bahamas tomorrow and this weekend as was originally expected.
In addition, it appears likely that the current center of 99-L will run into Cuba tonight and dissipate.
As a result, the ECMWF and HWRF have backed off on developing 99-L within the next 72 – 96 hours.
Therefor, 99-L’s chances of developing into a tropical storm over the Bahamas tomorrow or Saturday have decreased to near zero along with the chances of South Florida and the Florida Keys being impacted by a tropical storm on Sunday or Monday.
However, invest 99-L can’t be written of completely yet because shear could become slightly more favorable potentially allowing a new center to form sometime within the next several days.
If a new center forms there is a chance 99-L could develop into a tropical depression or storm over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday or Monday.
The latest runs of the ECMWF and HWRF are picking up on this potential, and they both develop 99-L over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday.
if 99-L does develop over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico it is too early to know where it would track and what the intensity would be.
As of their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center placed 99-L’s chances of developing at 60% over the next five days.
We believe 99-L’s chances of developing over the next 5 days are lower, around 40 – 50%.
Summary
99-L is no longer expected to develop into a tropical storm over the Bahamas tomorrow or Saturday. However, there is a chance 99-L could develop once it reaches the Southeast Gulf of Mexico if it can form a new center sometime within the next several days.
However, the chances of it developing have gone down significantly today; but development still can’t be entirely ruled out.
The bottom line is that there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding the evolution of 99-L over the next several days.
NOTE: Invest 99-L is no longer expected to impact South Florida as a tropical storm any longer.
We will have another update out tomorrow.
