Invest 99-L I still located over the Southern Bahamas this evening just north of Central Cuba at 23.5 degrees north and 79.0 degrees west moving to the west-northwest at about 5 – 10 miles per hour.
99-L finally appears to have finally developed a circulation today – albeit a broad one. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized due to 15 – 20kts of shear, some drier air, and land interaction with Cuba.
However, the fact that 99-l has developed a broad center indicates that it has slowly become better organized today despite the wind shear, dry air, and land interaction.
Development odds
99-L is expected to continue moving to the west-northwest through the Florida Straits tomorrow; and It is possible that 99-L could organize even further tomorrow as shear and dry air could decrease slightly; but land interaction with Cuba will remain a problem.
All in all, 99-L could become further organized tomorrow, but development of 99-L into a tropical depression or storm is unlikely during the next day or two.
By Monday 99-L is expected to track into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and it is possible environmental conditions could further improve for 99-L potentially allowing it to develop into a tropical depression or storm.
The latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, CMC, and HWRF develop 99-L into a tropical storm over the Southeast/Central Gulf of Mexico early/mid-week.
As of their 8:00pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave 99-L a 40% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 50% chance of developing over the next five days.
If invest 99-L does develop this week (50/50 chance) it would likely track toward the Central or East Gulf Coast making landfall anywhere between Southeast Louisiana and the Big Bend region of Florida.
We can’t speculate on potential the exact track and potential intensity yet as the exact evolution of 99-L still remains highly uncertain.
However, we will note that if 99-L develops there likely won’t be anything to impede it from strengthening in the Gulf.
If you live anywhere along the East or Central Gulf Coast you should continue to monitor the progress of 99-L over the next few days.
We should know more about the eventual fate of 99-L by Monday.
We will be back with another update on 99-L by tomorrow night.
