The tropical wave that we have been monitoring over the East Atlantic was designated invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center overnight.
As of 2:00PM EDT invest 97-L was located over the East Atlantic at 7.7 degrees north and 39.4 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 30 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 1012 millibars, and movement was west at about 20 miles per-hour.
Invest 97-L is in a favorable environment, and currently has a decent circulation and thunderstorm activity. However, it is currently moving too fast (20mph) to take advantage of the favorable environment and develop.
Forecast for 97-L over the Next 5 Days
Invest 97-L will continue to track west at a fairly quickly over the East Atlantic throughout the next 2 – 3 days, and development is not expected during this time.
However, by Wednesday, invest 97-L should slow down just East of the Windward Islands. When 97-L slows down Wednesday it should begin to develop, possibly becoming a tropical depression, as environmental conditions are generally expected to be favorable for development. On Thursday invest 97-L should enter the East Caribbean where it should continue to develop, likely becoming a tropical storm.
Model guidance
The majority of the global model guidance (the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, CMC, EPS, and GEFS) is in agreement on the evolution of 97-L over the next 5 days.
They forecast 97-L to develop into a tropical depression Wednesday, strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday, and become a hurricane on Friday or Saturday in the Central Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center gave invest 97-L a low chance (30%) of developing over the next 2 days, and a high chance of developing (90%) over the next 5 days in their 2:00PM EDT tropical weather outlook.
Beyond 5 Days
Looking beyond five days, there is a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, the potential intensity and tack of invest 97-L become highly uncertain beyond Thursday. However, it does look like invest 97-L (potentially TS Mathew) will track into the Central Caribbean around Friday or Saturday, potentially becoming a hurricane.
It is too early to know if 97-L will pose a threat to the United States.
NOTE: Invest 97-L is nothing for Gulf Coast residents to be concerned about at this moment. Although, it is something to keep an eye on this week.
We will have another update out on invest 97-L out tomorrow afternoon. For brief updates and model data be sure to follow us on Twitter.
