The tropical wave that we have been monitoring over the East Atlantic was designated invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center overnight.
As of 2:00PM EDT invest 97-L was located over the East Atlantic at 7.7 degrees north and 39.4 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 30 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 1012 millibars, and movement was west at about 20 miles per-hour.
Invest 97-L is in a favorable environment, and currently has a decent circulation and thunderstorm activity. However, it is currently moving too fast (20mph) to take advantage of the favorable environment and develop.
Forecast for 97-L over the Next 5 Days
Invest 97-L will continue to track west at a fairly quickly over the East Atlantic throughout the next 2 – 3 days, and development is not expected during this time.
However, by Wednesday, invest 97-L  should slow down just East of the Windward Islands. When 97-L slows down Wednesday it should begin to develop, possibly becoming a tropical depression, as environmental conditions are generally expected to be favorable for development. On Thursday invest 97-L should enter the East Caribbean where it should continue to develop, likely becoming a tropical storm.
Model guidance
The majority of the global model guidance (the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, CMC, EPS, and GEFS) is in agreement on the evolution of 97-L over the next 5 days.
They forecast 97-L to develop into a tropical depression Wednesday, strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday, and become a hurricane on Friday or Saturday in the Central Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center gave invest 97-L a low chance (30%) of developing over the next 2 days, and a high chance of developing (90%) over the next 5 days in their 2:00PM EDT tropical weather outlook.
Beyond 5 Days
Looking beyond five days, there is a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, the potential intensity and tack of invest 97-L become highly uncertain beyond Thursday. However, it does look like invest 97-L (potentially TS Mathew) will track into the Central Caribbean around Friday or Saturday, potentially becoming a hurricane.
It is too early to know if 97-L will pose a threat to the United States.
NOTE: Invest 97-L is nothing for Gulf Coast residents to be concerned about at this moment. Although, it is something to keep an eye on this week. Â
We will have another update out on invest 97-L out tomorrow afternoon. For brief updates and model data be sure to follow us on Twitter.
