Invest 97-L will likely become a tropical depression or storm tomorrow or Wednesday.
As of 8:00PM EDT invest 97-L was located at 10.2 degrees north and 50.2 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 30 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 1008 millibars, and movement was to the west-northwest.
Forecast for 97-L Over the Next 5 Days
Invest 97-L will continue moving west-northwest guided by a ridge of high pressure over the next 2 – 5 days, likely developing into a tropical depression or storm sometime tomorrow or Wednesday. Then, what will most likely tropical storm Mathew at this point, will move west or west-northwest, into the East Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and into the Central Caribbean on Friday or Saturday, where it could potentially intensify into a hurricane.
At this time, the global model guidance is in excellent agreement, forecasting the aforementioned scenario to come to fruition.
In their 8:00PM EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center have 97-L a high chance (80%) of developing over the next 2 days and a high chance (90%) of developing over the next 5 days.
Beyond 5 Days
However, beyond day 5 (Friday), the global model guidance diverges; therefore, details regarding both track and intensity beyond day 5 are highly uncertain.
The latest run of the GFS and GFS ensemble members forecast 97-L to strengthen into a major hurricane in the Central Caribbean this weekend. In addition, they also forecast the ridge of high pressure currently steering 97-L west-northwest to break down this weekend, allowing 97-L to move north out of the Caribbean and out to sea.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles (EPS), and CMC ensembles (GEPS) are forecasting 97-L to strengthen into a category 1 or 2 hurricane over the Central Caribbean this weekend. In addition, they also forecast the ridge to remain in place, causing 97-L continue moving west-northwest into the Northwest Caribbean Sea.
Summary
There is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding the evolution of invest 97-L beyond the days 5 (Friday); and it is too early to rule out US impacts. However, it is important to note that invest 97-L is nothing for Gulf Coast residents to be concerned about at this time, just something to keep an eye on.
We will have another update on invest 97-L tomorrow night and updates on social media throughout the day.
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