Invest 97-L was upgraded to Tropical Storm Mathew this morning; and the forecast is pretty strait forward through Saturday. However, it becomes very uncertain beyond then.
Position and Intensity
As of the 11:00PM EDT advisory Tropical Storm Mathew was located at 13.9 degrees north and 62.4 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 65 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 1004 millibars, and movement was to the west at 15 miles per-hour.
3 Day Forecast for Mathew
Mathew is expected to continue to track generally track westward across the East Caribbean through Friday, becoming a hurricane tomorrow. Then on Saturday Mathew will move into the Central Caribbean, where it will likely continue to intensify.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Mathew to intensify into a hurricane by tomorrow night.
The global model guidance is in very good agreement regarding the forecast for Mathew through Saturday, essentially forecasting the aforementioned too come to fruition.
Beyond day 3
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Mathew to turn towards the northwest on Saturday and to strengthen into a category 2 hurricane on Sunday.
However, after Saturday details regarding Mathew’s eventual fate (track and intensity) remain highly uncertain.
The GFS and GFS ensemble members (GEFS) are still insistent on forecasting the ridge currently steering Mathew to the west to break down, allowing Mathew to move Northward out to sea or up the East Coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and most of the ECMWF ensembles (EPS) are still insistent on forecasting the ridge to remain in place, allowing Mathew to move northwest, west-northwest, or west into the Bahamas, Southeast US, Northwestern Caribbean, or Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Although, the GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, and EPS are all in agreement on Mathew intensifying into a major hurricane sometime this weekend or early next week.
NOTE: The GFS and GEFS have continued to trend some towards the ECMWF and EPS solution today.
Summary
Tropical Storm Mathew will likely become a hurricane tomorrow and move into the Central Caribbean Saturday. However, after Saturday details regarding Mathew’s track and intensity remain highly uncertain.
It is too early to know if Mathew will impact the US.
We will have another update out on Mathew tomorrow night.
