Matthew Still a Major Hurricane; Direct Impacts to Florida Likely

Current intensity and position

As of the 11:00PM EDT advisory Matthew was located at 20.4 degrees north and 74.4 degrees west. Maximum sustained were 130 mile per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 950 millibars, and movement was to the north at 8 miles per-hour.

Current U.S. watches and warnings

• A hurricane watch is in effect from Golden Beach, Florida to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and for lake Okeechobee.

• A hurricane watch is in effect from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

• A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Florida Keys to the seven mile bridge, and for Florida Bay.

If you are under a tropical storm warning, hurricane warming, or hurricane watch you should review your hurricane plan, and prepare for impacts Matthew.

Forecast track for Matthew through Friday

Matthew will move into the Southern Bahamas later tonight, and will continue to track north. Then, tomorrow morning, a ridge of high pressure will build in to the east and northeast of Matthew, causing Matthew to turn to the north-northwest, and then to the northwest.

Matthew will continue to track to the northwest through the Bahamas over the next 2 days, reaching the Northern Bahamas late Thursday. Then, late Thursday and early Friday, Matthew will likely turn back to the north-northwest, to the North late Friday, and then northeast on Saturday.

At this time we still don’t know if Matthew will make landfall in Florida, track north along, Florida’s East Coast, or track north offshore of Florida’s East Coast.

The 12z ECMWF run has #Matthew making landfall along Florida’s East Coast Friday morning. *not a forecast* pic.twitter.com/KtpikBL2rt

— GulfCoastStormCenter (@GCWXC) October 4, 2016

The 18z GFS  forecasts Matthew to track north, just off Florida’s East Coast late Thursday through late Friday. Meanwhile, the 12z ECMWF forecasts Matthew to make landfall along Florida’s East Coast Friday morning.

Intensity forecast for Matthew through Friday

Matthew has weakened to a low end category 4 hurricane, and will likely maintain its current intensity through Thursday. However, Mathew could potentially re-intensify into a high end category 4 hurricane over the next two days, which is currently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF.

The National Hurricane Center [NHC] does not call for re-intensification, but the potential is there.

Regardless of re-intensification, Matthew will likely be a major hurricane when it impacts Florida.

Timing

Matthew will impact Florida late Thursday through Friday.

Impacts

Since we don’t know if Matthew will make landfall in Florida, move north along Florida’s East Coast, or remain offshore of Florida, details regarding impacts to Florida’s East Coast from Matthew are not clear.

However, tropical storm conditions are likely along Florida’s East Coast beginning late Thursday through Friday – even if Matthew remains offshore; but, if Matthew makes landfall along Florida’s East Coast or tracks north right along Florida’s East Coast, hurricane conditions will occur along portions of Florida’s East Coast.

Hopefully we will know more about Matthew’s likely impacts to Florida’s East Coast by tomorrow.

We will have another update out on Matthew tomorrow.