Position and intensity
As of the 8:00PM EDT intermediate advisory category 4 hurricane Matthew was located at 26.6 degrees north and 78.9 degrees west. Maximum sustained winds were 130 miles per-hour, the minimum central pressure was 939 millibars, and movement was to the northwest at 13 miles per-hour.
U.S. watches and warnings
- A hurricane warning is in effect from Golden Beach, FL to Santee River in SC.
- A tropical storm warning is in effect from Chokoloskee, FL to Golden Beach, FL; from the Antclote River in Florida to the Suwannee River in Florida; from the Florida Keys to the Seven Mile Bridge; From Santee River, in SC to Surf City, NC.
- A tropical storm watch is in effect from Chokoloskee, FL to the Antclote River.
Track forecast for Matthew through Sunday
Tonight through tomorrow night: Matthew will continue to be steered northwest by a ridge of high pressure through tonight, forcing Matthew to the Florida Coast. The ridge will then retreat east tomorrow morning, causing Matthew to turn north and “ride” up the entire East Coast of Florida – potentially making landfall around or north of Cape Canaveral, FL tomorrow morning as it does so.
This weekend: The ridge will retreat further east Saturday morning, causing Matthew to turn to the northeast and parallel the Southeast U.S. Coast. The ridge of high pressure will then build back in to the north of Matthew late Saturday, causing Matthew to turn east, and then south on Sunday.
beyond this weekend: It now looks like Matthew will loop back towards Florida next week; but we won’t discuss that in this update.
Intensity forecast for Matthew through Sunday
Tonight through tomorrow: Matthew will remain an extremely dangerous, life threatening, category 4 hurricane through tomorrow morning, weakening slightly to a high-end category 3 hurricane tomorrow afternoon or evening. However, Matthew will remain an extremely dangerous, life threatening hurricane after weakening.
This weekend: Matthew will continue to weaken through the weekend, weakening to category 1 hurricane Saturday, and to a tropical storm Sunday.
Timing
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS: Impacts from Matthew have already begun across Florida’s East Coast, as the outer bands of Matthew are now causing tropical storm conditions in the tropical storm warning area, hurricane warning area, and tropical storm watch area within Florida.
The tropical storm conditions will persist in Florida through tomorrow, but will gradually subside as the storm moves away from Florida tomorrow night into Saturday morning.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS: Hurricane conditions have not yet begun in Florida, but will later tonight, first coming ashore between West Palm Beach and Vero Beach tonight around 12:00AM – 1:00AM EDT, spreading north across the hurricane warning area within Florida through tonight and tomorrow.
Impacts
Matthew will bring life threatening, devastating impacts to Florida’s East Coast, and well inland, tonight and tomorrow – even if it doesn’t make landfall and remains just off-shore of Florida’s East Coast.
Hurricane force winds forecast to occur from Stuart N to Fernandina Beach w/ TS force winds also forecast to occur well inland. #Matthew pic.twitter.com/i30tU05Sa5
— Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX) October 6, 2016
Hurricane warning area: 115 mile per-hour + sustained winds with higher gusts, 3 – 9′ storm surge, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes.
Tropical storm warning area: 40 mile per-hour + winds, heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes.
Tropical storm watch area: tropical storm force wind gusts, heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes.
Preparations
The time for preparing [ buying supplies, putting up hurricane shutters, evacuating etc…] along Florida’s East Coast is over. Tropical storm conditions have already begun in the tropical storm warning area, tropical storm warning area, and tropical storm watch area in Florida, and hurricane conditions are imminent.
We will have another website update out on Matthew tomorrow, with continuing updates on Twitter and Facebook.
