Beneficial rain is likely to return to the Gulf Coast Region this week. But unfortunately, the potential for severe weather will return too.
A strong trough is expected to dig into the Southern Plains on Sunday and gradually lift out to the northeast, through the Mississippi River Valley and into the Great Lakes Region, Monday through Thursday. Additionally, this trough will bring an associated cold front through Texas and West Louisiana on Monday and Tuesday. The front will then stall out across Southern Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday after it moves through East Texas and West Louisiana.
Rainfall
The trough, and the associated front, will draw deep Gulf moisture northward. This will result in two rounds of beneficial rain across the Gulf Coast Region, with rainfall totals of 1 – 4″ likely between Monday and Thursday.
Round #1: The first round of storms will occur Monday through Tuesday night, bringing rain to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Round #2: The second round of rain will occur Tuesday night through early Thursday, bringing rain to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Severe weather potential
It looks extremely likely that a squall line will form along and ahead of the front on Monday and progress east across East Texas, much of Louisiana and Mississippi, and perhaps into extreme West Alabama.
Presently instability values are expected to be low, which would normally preclude the potential for severe weather. However, lift, forcing, and shear is expected to be sufficient enough to support severe weather across East Texas, much of Louisiana and Mississippi, and potentially extreme West Alabama on Monday in association with the squall line.
At this time it looks like all modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail) will be possible on Monday.
Severe weather will also be possible again across South Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama again on Tuesday along the stalled front. All modes of severe weather will be likely on Tuesday as well.
We will have another update out on this tomorrow.
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