A surface low has developed over Northern Mexico, and will push into extreme Southern Texas tomorrow. It will then track northeast, across the Mississippi River Valley, from Sunday night through early Tuesday. As it does so it will bring heavy rainfall, the potential for flash flooding, and the potential for severe weather.
Severe weather threat: As we mentioned in our update yesterday, strong to severe storms will be possible across the Western and Central Gulf Coast this weekend and early next week, along and south of a warm front associated with the low.
Tonight: The Widespread rain and storms will There is a “marginal” risk of severe weather across the Southern Texas tonight, as instability and shear could support some strong to severe storms overnight. The overall severe weather threat is low, though. Hail and strong, damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with any storms that manage to become severe.
Tomorrow: Additionally, there is a “marginal” risk of severe weather across Southern Texas again tomorrow. The setup is expected to be very similar to tonight’s. Therefore, the severe weather threat will be low; and the main threats with any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds.
Next week: It also still looks like there will be a more substantial threat for severe weather across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Monday into Tuesday morning along and south of a warm front associated with the surface low.
It’s still to early for specifics, though.
Heavy rainfall: Heavy rainfall is likely across much of the Western and Central Gulf Coast region over the next 5 days, as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will impact both regions starting tonight.
The heaviest rainfall will occur across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana. And flash flooding will be a concern.
Arctic blast next week: The first strong Arctic front of the season will sweep through the Gulf Coast Region late next week. This front will bring the coldest air of the season with it. It’s to early for specifics, but freezing temperatures will be possible almost directly along the coast.
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