The surface low has begun to push into Southern Texas, and will track northeast, across the Mississippi River Valley, from tomorrow night through early Tuesday.
Recap: As the low began to push into Texas today it brought the first round of heavy rainfall to most of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Western Alabama. It also brought strong to severe storms to Southern Texas and Southwest Louisiana.
Severe weather: Strong to severe storms will continue to be a threat across the Western Gulf Coast tonight.
Overnight: In fact, an eastward moving complex of strong storms (a product of today’s first round of rainfall) is still impacting Southwestern Louisiana at this hour. This line will continue to track west, across Southern Louisiana, during east during the overnight hours.
As it does so it will bring the risk for a few severe storms. However, the overall severe weather threat is low. The primary threats posed by any storms that do manage to become severe will be hail, strong wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.
Also, more storms are expected to develop across Southern Texas overnight; and a few could potentially become strong to severe, too. The primary threats would again be hail, strong wind gusts, and possibly an isolated tornado overnight.
Monday: Severe weather will be possible across the Central Gulf Coat again on Monday as the surface low begins to accelerate off to the Northeast.
It still looks like shear and greater instability will support a more substantial risk for severe weather across Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle; where the Storm Prediction Center has a “slight” risk for severe weather placed.
At this time we still don’t know exactly what modes of severe weather are most likely. However, it does look like there will be a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds.
Heavy rainfall: The first round of rain and storms today brought 2 – 4″ of rain to Southeastern Texas, Southwestern Louisiana, and North/Central Louisiana. It also brought 1 -2″ of rain to North/Central Mississippi and North/Central Alabama.
More rain is likely tomorrow through Tuesday with two more rounds of rain and storms. And unlike today’s round of rain and storms, substantial rain will be likely across Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Flash flooding will be a concern across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana, where flash flood watches are in place through tomorrow night and Monday morning.
Arctic blast next week: The first strong Arctic front of the season will sweep through the Gulf Coast Region late next week. This front will bring the coldest air of the season with it. It’s to early for specifics, but freezing temperatures will be possible almost directly along the coast.
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