Heavy rain today through Tuesday: Multiple rounds of heavy rain and storms are still expected to affect the Western and Central and Gulf Coast through Tuesday; the first of which is currently impacting Southern Louisiana.
Overall, a widespread 2 – 4″ of rainfall is expected between now and Tuesday, with locally higher amounts possible.
As you can see in the graphic above, the heaviest rain is expected to fall across Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle, where flash flood watches are in place through tomorrow afternoon.
There will be breaks in between each round of rain and storms. However, it will be rainy for the most part across the Western and Central Gulf Coast through Tuesday.
Severe weather potential: There is still potential for strong to severe storms tomorrow through Tuesday night as well.
Tomorrow: The greatest threat for severe storms will be tomorrow night, across East/Central Texas and West Louisiana, where the SPC has hatched a “slight” risk area. Both supercells and bowing line segments will be possible, which means all modes of severe weather (hail, damaging winds, tornadoes) will be possible.
There will also be a lower risk for severe storms across much of the Western and Central Gulf Coast tomorrow early morning through late tomorrow morning/early tomorrow afternoon, in association with an area of widespread rain and storms. Hail, damaging winds, and cloud to ground lightning.
Monday into Tuesday: At this time, indications are that the storms that develop tomorrow night will merge into a large mesoscale convective system (a line of storms) early Monday morning, and progress east throughout the day Monday.
If this occurs, which appears likely at this time, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible is association with the mesoscale convective system.
The greatest threat for severe weather will be in the “slight” risk area in the graphic above.
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