It appears likely that the potential for strong to severe storms will return to most of the region late this week.
Setup: All of the reliable global model guidance is predicting a storm system push across the Midwest from Friday through Saturday, and for it to bring a trailing cold front associated with it through the region.
Additionally, they depict that there will be enough parameters in place to support some strong to severe storms across East Texas, much of Louisiana, and West Mississippi, ahead of the front, on Friday; and further east, across East Mississippi, much of Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, on Saturday.
Placement: The Storm Prediction Center has hatched a 15% risk for severe storms (the equivalent of a “slight” risk area) across much of East Texas, much of Louisiana, and West Mississippi for Friday (see the image at the beginning of this update).
They have also hatched the equivalent of a slight risk for severe storms across East Mississippi, much of Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle for Saturday.
However, it is important to note that the above outlooks are “rough drafts.” They are extended range outlooks by the Storm Prediction Center, and not convective outlooks. This means that over the next few days they are subject to change; and by Friday and Saturday, the actual threat area could encompass a larger area.
Uncertainty: While the potential for strong to severe storms will return to the region late this week, there is some uncertainty. It is to early to determine the timing, exact placement, and overall magnitude of any severe threat.
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