Severe weather is still expected to return to much of the region this week, with the first round expected tomorrow and Thursday, and the second round expected this weekend into early next week.
Round One
Setup: A storm system is expected to push across the parts of the South and Midwest tomorrow through late Thursday and early Friday, bringing a cold front from west to east across the region.
Storms will develop along and ahead of it as it pushes across the region, and the necessary parameters will be in place to support a severe weather threat.
Placement tomorrow: There will be a threat for severe weather across East Texas and West Louisiana on tomorrow.
The greatest threat severe weather threat will be in the “slight” (level 2) and “enhanced” (level 3) risk areas.
Additionally, it does need to be noted that the Storm Prediction Center is considering upgrading parts of the “enhanced” risk area to a “moderate” (level 4) risk area. If this upgrade comes to fruition, there will be a significant threat for severe weather in the “moderate” risk area.
Placement Thursday: The threat will then shift east, to much of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme Western Florida Panhandle on Thursday.
The greatest threat for severe weather on Thursday will be in the “slight” (level 2) and “enhanced” (level 3) risk areas. However, there will also be a low threat for severe weather in the “marginal” (level 1) risk area.
Timing: Storms will develop across East Texas late tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow evening, and push into West Louisiana tomorrow evening and overnight. It is too early to pin down the exact timing for Thursday’s storms.
Threats: All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) appear to be threats tomorrow and Thursday; with the potential for a strong tornado or two tomorrow in the “enhanced” risk area.
Round Two
Another storm system will develop sweep across much of the South from Sunday through Monday.
This storm system will bring the threat for severe weather back to much of the region again. However, it is still too early to give details; just know that the threat is there. We should have more information tomorrow.
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