There is a level 3 (enhanced) risk for severe weather across parts of the region today, and a level 4 (moderate) risk for severe storms across parts of the region tomorrow.
Today
Strong to severe storms are expected across East Texas, much of Louisiana, and Western Mississippi late this afternoon and overnight
Placement: The greatest threat for severe storms will be in the “enhanced” (level 3) and “slight” (level 2) risk areas.
However, strong to severe storms will also be possible in the “marginal” (level 1) risk areas.
Timing: Storms, likely several clusters of them, will develop across East Texas late this afternoon and evening. They will then push across Louisiana and Western Mississippi during the overnight hours, potentially evolving into one large complex.
Threats: All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) will be threats, with there being a rather high threat for large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a strong tornado in the “enhanced” (level 3) risk area.
Tomorrow
The threat will then shift east, to much of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama tomorrow.
Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather on Thursday will be in the “slight” (level 2), “enhanced” (level 3), and “moderate” (level 4) risk areas. However, there will also be a low threat for severe weather in the “marginal” (level 1) risk area.
Threats: All modes of severe weather will be a threat again tomorrow, with there being an exceptional risk for strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail in the “moderate” (level 4) and “enhanced” (level 3) risk areas.
Timing: Storms that develop this afternoon and evening and push east will still be ongoing across parts of Mississippi and East Louisiana tomorrow morning. However, they will not be the main threat, and will dissipate by mid to late morning.
Tomorrow’s severe threat will come from new storms will develop across Western portions of the threat area tomorrow afternoon, and push across the remainder of the threat area into the overnight hours. We will have more specifics on timing tomorrow.
This Weekend and Early next Week
Another storm system will develop sweep across much of the South from Sunday through Monday; and it is still expected to bring the threat for severe weather back to much of the region.
Potential placement: The Storm Prediction Center has hatched the equivalent of a “slight” (level 2) risk of severer weather across parts of East Texas, much of Louisiana, and Western Mississippi on Sunday.
They have not yet hatched an area for Monday. However, they will likely do so within the next day or two, and it will likely encompass much of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Potential threats and timing: While it is likely that there will be a severe weather threat across much of the region on Sunday and Monday, it is still too early to pin down exact details regarding the timing and what threats are likely.
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