A significant, multi-day severe weather event is going to unfold across much of the region this weekend into early next week.
Setup: A strong storm system is going to push across much of the South late tomorrow through Monday.
It will tap into deep gulf moisture as it does so, drawing it north, allowing widespread storms to develop across much of the region; and the necessary parameters will be in place to support them becoming strong to severe.
Tomorrow
The severe weather threat will start initiate across parts of East Texas late tomorrow.
Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather late tomorrow will be in the category 2 (“slight”) risk area.
Timing: Storms will develop late tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. However, they won’t be widespread.
Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible. However, hail and brief, isolated tornadoes will be the primary threats.
Sunday
The threat will continue across East Texas Sunday, and also shift into the majority of Louisiana and parts of Western Mississippi.
Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather Sunday will be in the category 2 (“slight”) and category 3 (“enhanced”) risk areas. However, strong to severe storms will also be possible in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.
Timing: Widespread thunderstorms, some being strong to severe, are likely throughout the day Sunday across the entire threat area. However, by Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, a large squall line will likely develop across East Texas. Form there, it will likely push into, and across, Louisiana Sunday night into early Monday.
Threats: All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) will be likely on Sunday. However, the threat for swaths of damaging winds could be exceptionally high with the squall line.
Additionally, heavy rainfall and flooding will be a threat.
Monday
The threat will likely push into much of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Placement: The Storm Prediction Center has not delineated a threat area yet, as there is still some uncertainty. However, that will likely change tomorrow.
Timing: It is too early to discuss the potential timing.
Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible, along with heavy rainfall and flooding.
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