The threat for severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding will return to much of the region tomorrow and Thursday, ahead of a strong cold front.
Severe Threat Tomorrow
The severe weather threat tomorrow will span across East Texas, all of Louisiana, much of Mississippi and Southwest Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle.
Placement: The greatest risk for severe weather tomorrow will be in the category 3 (“enhanced”) and category 2 (“slight”) risk areas.
However, severe weather will also be a possibility in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.
Timing: Multiple clusters of storms will initially develop across South/Central Texas and Southwest tomorrow morning, along and south of a warm front; some of which will become severe.
Then tomorrow afternoon, a squall line will develop across East Texas and West Louisiana along/ahead of the cold front; and push across the remainder of Louisiana and much of Central/South Mississippi during the evening hours and overnight, and into Southwest Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle early Thursday morning.
Threats: Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be the primary threats with the first round of storms tomorrow morning; with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes becoming the main concern with the squall line tomorrow evening and overnight.
Heavy Rainfall Tomorrow
The threat for excessive rainfall and flooding tomorrow will be centered across East Texas, most of Louisiana, and Southern Mississippi (and Southwest Alabama and extreme Western Florida Panhandle into early Thursday morning).
Overall, rainfall accumulations of 2 – 4″ with locally higher accumulations are expected.
Severe Threat Thursday
The severe weather threat will continue across the Western Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning, and will also shift into the Central/Eastern Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama, and North/Central Florida on Thursday.
Placement: The greatest risk for severe weather Thursday will be in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.
Timing: The squall line will continue east, pushing across the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama Thursday morning, and across North/Central Florida Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Heavy Rainfall Thursday
The threat for heavy rainfall and flooding will diminish somewhat by Thursday, with the greatest flood threat remaining across the Western Florida Panhandle, where heavier rainfall is anticipated to continue through late Thursday morning.
Overall, rainfall accumulations between 2 – 4″ are also expected Thursday, with locally higher accumulations possible.
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