We continue to monitor the potential for tropical development in the West Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico this upcoming weekend into early next week.
Model Guidance
For the past several days, pretty much all of the global model guidance has remained consistent; forecasting a tropical depression or storm to form from a large monsoonal gyre around the Yucatan Peninsula this upcoming weekend.
Our Thoughts
Climatology tells us that the Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are favored regions for tropical development in June; the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is expected to be in a favorable state for tropical development in the Atlantic; and all of the global model guidance is forecasting development near the Yucatan Peninsula.
So, all in all, it is safe to assume that there is a decent chance for some sort tropical activity in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula this time next week. However, we still can’t say with confidence if a tropical cyclone will form or not.
This is because monsoonal systems often have difficulty organizing; and model guidance typically does not handle them well.
At this time, we would place the chances of a tropical development between 30 – 40 percent.
If something does develop, it is too early to know know what track it might take.
Presently, the potential for development remains nothing to be too concerned about, but something to monitor.
We will have another update out tomorrow or Tuesday.
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