Tropical development remains a possibility near the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend into early next week.
Model Guidance
All of the reliable global model guidance continues to forecast tropical cyclone to form from a large monsoonal gyre around the Yucatan Peninsula this upcoming weekend, in either the Northwest Caribbean or Southwester Gulf of Mexico.
Our Thoughts
Climatology tells us that the Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are favored regions for tropical development in June; the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is still forecast to be in a favorable state for tropical development in the Atlantic; and all of the global model guidance has remained consistent in forecasting tropical development near the Yucatan Peninsula.
So, all in all, it is safe to assume that there is a decent chance for tropical development around Yucatan Peninsula this time next week. However, we still can’t say with confidence that a tropical cyclone will form or not.
This is because monsoonal systems often have difficulty organizing due to their size, and land interaction with Central America.
Additionally, model guidance typically does not handle them well because they can have multiple competing low pressure areas within them, and also because of land interaction with Central America and their size.
Chance of Development
At this time, we would unofficially place the chance of tropical development between 30 – 40 percent.
However, officially, the National Hurricane Center places the chance of tropical development at 20% over the next 5 days.
If something does manage to develop, it is too early to speculate on what track it might take.
Our next update will be Thursday.
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