The area of disturbed weather located in the Northwest Caribbean Sea was designated invest 93-L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, and has a high chance of developing in the Southern Gulf early this upcoming week.
Latest Information
As of 7pm CDT, Invest 93-L was located at 17.5 degrees north and 87 degrees west, moving slowly northwest. The minimum central pressure was 1006 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of 25kts .
Odds of Development
Overall, conditions are expected to be conductive for gradual development of 93-L over the next 2 – 5 days.
In their 7pm CDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave invest 93-L a 40% chance of organizing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, and a 80% chance of organizing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.
Model Guidance
Most of the global model guidance remains in agreement on 93-L organizing into a tropical cyclone over the Southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday; and that it will be a weak, east weighted system.
However, that is where the agreement ends.
Potential Track
There is still a large amount of uncertainty in regard to the potential track of 93-L when it develops (if it does, which appears more likely than not at this point), with model guidance split into two camps.
The ECMWF UKMET are in one camp, forecasting 93-l to track Northwest into the Western Gulf; and the GFS and CMC in the other, forecasting 93-L to track into the Central/Eastern Gulf.
The main cause of this disagreement among the models is the ECWMF and UKMET forecasting a break between a ridge of high pressure to close quicker than the GFS and CMC.
So, simply put, everyone from Florida to Texas should monitor the progress of 93-L over the next several days.
Potential Impacts
At this point, 93-L will likely becoming nothing more that a weak to moderate tropical storm, with all of the weather focused on the east side of the storm. This means the main impacts would likely heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and rough surf.
However, who gets what remains largely unknown, as it all hinges on the eventual track.
Timing
The timing of any potential impacts is the Tuesday Wednesday time frame.
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Our next update will be tomorrow, with continuing updates on social media.
NOTE: It is important to keep in mind that there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the track of 93-L. Everyone from Texas to Florida should continue to monitor its progress over the coming days.
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