Confidence remains high in invest 93-L, currently located over the Northwest Caribbean Sea, developing into a tropical cyclone over the Southern or Central Gulf of Mexico tomorrow or Tuesday.
Latest Information
As of 7pm CDT, Invest 93-L was located at 19.8 degrees north and 87 degrees west, moving slowly northwest. The minimum central pressure was 1004 millibars, with maximum sustained winds of 35kts .
Chance of Development
Conditions are still expected to be conductive for gradual development of 93-L over the next 2 – 5 days.
In their 7pm CDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave invest 93-L a 80% chance of organizing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance of organizing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.
The hurricane hunter are scheduled to investigate 93-L tomorrow afternoon if necessary.
Model Guidance
Most of the global model guidance remains in agreement on 93-L organizing into a tropical cyclone over the Southern Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow or Tuesday; and that it will be a weak, east weighted system.
However, they remain in disagreement on the potential track of 93-L when it develops (if it does, which is likely), with model guidance split into two camps.
The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC are in one camp, forecasting 93-l to track Northwest into the Western Gulf; and the GFS and HWRF (a hurricane model), forecasting 93-L to track into the Central Gulf.
Potential Impacts
At this point, 93-L will likely becoming nothing more that a weak to moderate tropical storm, with all of the weather focused on the east side of the storm. This means the main impacts would likely heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and rough surf.
Additionally, it needs to be pointed out that this is a large system, and impacts would be felt well away from the center; mainly to the north and east of it.
NOTE: who sees what will be heavily dependent on the track 93-L ultimately takes.
Timing
The timing of any potential impacts is the Tuesday – Thursday time frame.
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Our next update will be tomorrow, with continuing updates on social media.
NOTE: It is important to keep in mind that there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the track of 93-L. Everyone along the Western and North/Central Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress over the coming days.
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