The tropical wave between Africa and the Caribbean, that is being monitored for potential tropical development, was designated Invest 94L yesterday.
Analysis
94L has become somewhat better organized over the past two days, with a modest amount of convection. However, it still lacks any significant spin; the aforementioned convection associated with it is also disorganized, both of which can be attributed to dry Saharan air to the north.
Chance of Development
Other than the presence of dry air, conditions are favorable for development of 94L: wind shear is low, and sea surface temperatures are supportive of tropical development.
The aforementioned environmental conditions are expected to persist over the next two to five days at the minimum. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) will also be in a favorable state for tropical development in the Atlantic throughout the week. Therefore, it seems that 94L will continue to gradually organize over the course of the next couple of days, likely becoming Tropical Storm “Don.”
In their 8:00am EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next two days, and a 80% chance of development over the next five days.
Model Guidance
All three models that are the best at predicting tropical development — the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET — continue to forecast development of 94L.
Additionally, most of the GFS ensembles (GEFS) forecast development of 94L, along with most of the ECMWF ensembles (EPS).
Potential Track
94L is expected track generally west to west-northwest, towards the Northeast Caribbean, over the next 5-days due to a strong ridge of high pressure to its north.
However, it remains too early to speculate on the future of 94L beyond the next five days.
NOTE: invest 94L is not a threat to the U.S. at this time.
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