A tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic, just south of the Cabo Verde Islands moving west, has some potential for development.
Satellite images this evening show that the wave only has only a moderate area of disorganized convective activity. Furthermore, data from the University of Wisconsin indicates that the wave’s vorticity is elongated.
Presently, the wave is located in an environment marginally conductive for development: the southern extent of the Saharan Air layer (SAL) is in close proximity to the wave, but just to the north rather than on top of it; wind shear is low; and sea surface temperatures are around 27 – 28 degrees Celsius – supportive of development.
Chance of Development
It appears that the aforementioned, marginally conductive environmental factors will persist as the wave tracks west across the Tropical Atlantic over the next five days, potentially allowing for some slow development.
In their 8:00pm CDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave the wave a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.
Model Guidance
All three of the reliable global models used for predicting tropical cyclone genesis — the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF — forecast at least some weak development of this wave over the course of the next several days.
Uptick in Activity Likely as we Head Into August
It still appears likely that activity is going to pick up significantly across the Atlantic as we head into August.
There are several reasons for this, with the most obvious being that activity historically picks up in the Atlantic during the month of August.
However, in addition to what climatology tells us, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will be moving into a phase that is favorable for tropical development in the Atlantic as we head into August (and possibly beyond). Furthermore, a strong Convectively Active Kelvin Wave will be moving across the Atlantic Basin beginning August the 8th, which also leads to upward motion (rising air, and therefore an increase in convective activity) across the Atlantic similar to the MJO.
___
For future updates follow us on our social media:
You can also follow our hurricane Facebook page Hurricane Central, or our partner page Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
