An area of low pressure has formed in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a decaying frontal boundary, and has been designated invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center.
Analysis
Satellite images this afternoon show that invest 98L has a decent amount of convective activity and “spin,” but also shows the convective activity is displaced to the south of the low pressure center.
Chance of Development
At this time, the chances of 98L developing are low, but not zero. Presently the two main factors going against development are: unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air pushing in from the north. The only factor is supportive of development is warm sea surface temperatures.
In their 2pm EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center put the odds of development at 20% over the next two days and 30% over the next five days.
Model Guidance
All three of the reliable models used for predicting tropical cyclone genesis (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are forecasting at least some development of 98L over the next two days.
Potential Track, Intensity, and Impacts
If 98L manages to develop, it will most likely become nothing more than a weak tropical or sub-tropical storm at best, and be pulled quickly off to the northeast, across Florida, and into the Western Atlantic by a trough of low pressure on Tuesday.
Heavy rainfall across parts of Central and Northern Florida is expected to be the main impact from 98L, regardless of development. However, if 98L does develop into a tropical cyclone, additional impacts other than heavy rain could be felt along parts of the West Coast of Florida.
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