Franklin made landfall in the Mexican state of Veracruz early Thursday, dissipating shortly thereafter. However, despite the dissipation of Franklin, the tropics are not quiet. We are still monitoring Invest 99L. We are also monitoring the potential for development in the Main Development Region (MDR) in about 5 – 7 days.
Invest 99L
Invest 99L is now located in the Southwest Atlantic, just north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images and data from CIMSS this evening show that it has very pronounced “spin” or vorticity; but that convective activity is both limited and unorganized. Recent ASCAT data also showed that 99L lacks a closed low level circulation.
Chance of Development: Environmental conditions have yet to become more conducive for development of 99L — something that has been expected for much of its assistance. Although, it appears that could change this weekend, as 99L finally appears will be moving into slightly more conducive environmental conditions.
In their 8pm EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center gave 99L a 40% chance of developing over the next two days and a 60% chance of developing over the next five days.
Model Guidance: Only two of the two of three reliable global models used for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are predicting development of 99L in their latest runs — the ECMWF and UKMET.
Potential Track and Intensity: If invest 99L does develop, it likely won’t be anything more than a tropical storm at best, and will re-curve east of the United States due to a trough of low pressure expected to dig in over the Eastern United States.
Main Development Region
The GFS, ECMWF, their ensembles, and the UMKET are hinting that a tropical wave currently south of the Cabo Verde Islands might have a shot at development mid to late week next week.
However, this is just something to watch as watch as we head into next week at this point.
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