Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9) is now Tropical Storm Harvey. Meanwhile, Invest 92L still has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days.
Harvey
As of the 11pm EDT advisory Tropical Storm Harvey was located just east of the Lesser Antilles, moving west at 18mph, with maximum sustained winds of 40mph and a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars.
Forecast Track: Harvey will track to the west and west-northwest, towards the West Northwest Caribbean and Central America, over the next five days.
There is a chance Harvey could move into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. However, the latest consensus of the track guidance does not favor that at this time.
Note: Harvey does not pose a threat to the U.S. at this time.
Forecast Intensity: Overall, Harvey is likely to steadily strengthen over the next five days, with the National Hurricane Center forecasting Harvey to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the Central or Western Caribbean; something that most of the latest intensity guidance is forecasting.
However, it is possible that Harvey could degenerate into an open wave in the East Caribbean — which is what the ECMWF and GFS are forecasting — and something that is noted in the latest forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
Invest 92L
Invest 92L has become better organized since today.
Satellite images this evening show that Invest 92L has decent amount of convective activity. They also show that 92L has a decent amount of “spin,” which is also shown by data from CIMSS.
Chance of Development: Overall, Invest 92L has a high chance of organizing into a tropical cyclone, as environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development of 92L through this weekend, and likely into early next week.
Presently, the only thing going against development is the possibility that further development of 92L could be hindered by a band of shear just to its from an upper-level low tomorrow and Saturday.
In its 8pm EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave Invest 92L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next two to five days.
Model Guidance: At this time, only the UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members are forecasting development of 92L.
Potential Track and Intensity: A ridge of high pressure will steer 92L west to west-northwest into the Bahamas by early next week. However, it is uncertain if 92L will be a tropical cyclone at that time; and if so, how strong it would be and where it would track from there.
NOTE: It is too early to determine if Invest 92L poses a threat to the United States.
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