The Remnants of Harvey (Invest Harvey) have emerged in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, just off of the northwest tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Analysis: Satellite images this evening indicate that Invest Harvey has a decent amount of deep convective activity. They also indicate that Invest Harvey has some pronounced “spin” or vorticity, which data from CIMSS confirms. However, surface observations suggest that Invest Harvey continues to lack a closed center of circulation.
Chance of Development: At this point, regeneration into a tropical cyclone is essentially guaranteed; environmental conditions are favorable, and the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET are all forecasting regeneration.
In its 8pm EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave Invest Harvey a near 100% chance of regenerating over the next 5 days.
Forecast Track and Intensity: The latest model consensus is that Harvey will track towards the central Texas coastline; make landfall late Friday or early Saturday as strong tropical storm or hurricane; slow down and stall over South Texas through early next week; and loop back into the Gulf by Tuesday.
However, there is still uncertainty regarding both strength and exact track – particularly regarding the stall, the loop back into the Gulf, and what happens after the loop (if it occurs).
Impacts: How strong Harvey becomes will dictate what impacts will ultimately be likely, and how severe they might be.
However, as of now, a significant, potentially life threatening heavy rainfall and flash flood event appears likely at the minimum across South Texas and Southwest Louisiana.
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