Harvey regenerated into a tropical cyclone this morning over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
Latest advisory info: As of the 10pm CDT advisory Harvey was still a tropical depression, located at 21.9 degrees north and 92.6 degrees west, moving to the northwest at 2mph, with maximum sustained winds of 35mph, and a minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars.
Advisories: A hurricane watch is in effect from Port Mansfield, TX to Louis Pass, TX. Tropical storm watches are also in effect from Catan, Mexico to Port Mansfield, TX and from San Louis Pass, TX to High Island, TX.
Forecast track: Harvey will be steered generally to the Northwest through Friday and into Saturday by a mid-level ridge of high pressure over the East Gulf of Mexico, with landfall expected to occur somewhere along the Southern or Central Texas coastline.
However, beyond the Friday – Saturday time frame, Harvey’s track becomes uncertain. Steering currents will weaken — causing Harvey to slow or stall over Southern Texas for several days — and then either reemerge into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday or early Monday or dissipate over Southern Texas.
At this time, the the former seems to have more credence, as that is what the latest runs of the GFS ensembles, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensembles are forecasting.
Intensity forecast: Environmental conditions are expected to be very conducive for intensification of Harvey beginning tomorrow and continuing through landfall late Friday or early Saturday.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Harvey to become a tropical storm tonight, and intensify into a category 1 hurricane right before landfall. However, Harvey could very possibly become stronger.
Impacts: A significant, potentially life threatening heavy rainfall and flash flood event appears likely across South Texas and Southwest Louisiana from Harvey this weekend and into early next week, which will be due to Harvey slowing down significantly and or stalling.
Storm surge and tropical storm and hurricane force winds (in the tropical storm watch and warning areas) will also be likely.
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