The tropics are really beginning to heat up, with two other things to monitor in addition to Harvey: Invest 93L off of Africa and potential development in the Gulf next week.
Harvey
10 PM CDT Advisory Information: Topical Storm Harvey is located about 65 miles south-southeast of Port Arthur Texas this evening, moving northeast at 6mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50mph and a minimum central pressure of 994 millibars.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Holly Beach to Morgan City
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Freeport Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana
Forecast: Harvey is expected to make a second and final landfall in Southwest Louisiana tonight or early tomorrow morning, and accelerate off to the north-northeast and northeast after. Further intensification before landfall is unlikely.
Impacts: Torrential rainfall will continue across extreme Southeast Texas through tomorrow, with additional accumulations of 6 – 12″ expected, However, the rain will begin to move out late tomorrow and Friday as Harvey exits off to the north and east.
Additionally, periods of torrential rainfall from Harvey’s outer rain bands will continue from Southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle through at least late tomorrow or early Friday, as Harvey will continue to draw a large fetch of moisture north on its east side. Additional rainfall accumulations between 6 – 10″ are likely.
Aside from the flood threat, low-end tropical storm force winds and some coastal flooding from storm surge remain likely in the tropical storm warned areas. Brief tornadoes will also be possible from Southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Invest 93L
Invest 93L emerged off of Africa yesterday, and is currently located near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Satellite images and data from CIMSS this evening show that Invest 93L is already fairly well organized, with very good vorticity, a decent amount of convective activity, good structure, and some banding features.
Chance of Development: Overall, it appears Invest 93L has a very good chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, as it is currently very well organized.
Furthermore, environmental conditions are currently conducive for development, and will continue to be for the next 5 days at least.
In its 8pm tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center over both the next 2 and 5 days.
Track and Intensity: Invest 93L will track towards the west-northwest to west track, across the Tropical Atlantic, over the next 5 days; it is too early to speculate on intensity. It is also too early to speculate on track (and intensity) beyond the next 5 days.
Model Guidance: All three of the reliable global models used for predicting tropical cyclone development — the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS — are forecasting development of 93L.
Potential Gulf Development
The ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS, along with many of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, are hinting at tropical development in the Western Gulf early to midweek next week along the tail end of a decaying frontal boundary.
This is nothing to be too concerned about at this time, as development is not guaranteed.
However, it is something that will need to be monitored closely, as it could bring more to areas impacted by Harvey.
___
For future updates follow us on our social media:
You can also follow our hurricane Facebook page Hurricane Central, or our partner page Daimien’s Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center.
