There is no longer any potential for tropical development in the Southern Gulf. However, we continue to track Hurricane Irma and a tropical wave off of the coast of Africa that has a high likely hood of developing by the middle of this upcoming week.
Irma
Irma has been fluctuating in intensity over the past two days due to eye wall replacement cycles, but remains a powerful hurricane.
11PM EDT Advisory Info: As of the 11pm EDT advisory, Irma was a category 2 hurricane, located 18.3 degrees north 46.2 degrees west, with maximum sustained winds of 110mph and a minimum central pressure of 974 millibars, and was moving west at 14mph.
Track Forecast (Next 5 days): Irma will continue moving west for the next 12 – 24 hours, and is still expected to turn south-southwest tomorrow or Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
A west-northwesterly motion is then expected to resume on Tuesday into Wednesday near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as Irma nears the western flank of the ridge, which will likely continue through at least Thursday, causing Irma to move into the vicinity of the Bahamas.
Intensity Forecast (next 5 days): Environmental conditions will remain generally conducive for continued intensification of Irma over the next 5 days, and Irma is likely to become a category 4 (or possibly 5) hurricane as it moves just north of or over the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Some fluctuations in intensity will occur due eye wall replacements cycles, however.
Long Range: It is fairly certain that Irma will remain a very strong storm. However, a significant degree of uncertainty remains regarding Irma’s track in the long term.
The ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles, and GFS ensembles have been oscillating between two scenarios: a trough over the Eastern Sea Board pulling Irma out to sea, and the trough weakening/lifting out quickly allowing the Bermuda high to build back in, causing Irma to head towards the Southeast United States.
On the other hand, the GFS has been consistently forecasting the trough to pull Irma northward towards the Mid-Atlantic and New England as it lifts out.
African Wave
A new tropical wave over the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off of the coast of Africa still has potential to develop by the middle of next week as it tracks westward.
Chance of Development: Overall, this wave has a high chance of developing, as environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this wave over at least the next 5 days or so.
In its 8 PM EDT tropical weather outlook the National Hurricane Center this wave a 70% chance of developing over the next 5 days.
Model Guidance: All three of the reliable global models best at predicting tropical cyclone genesis — the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS — are still forecasting development of this wave as of their latest runs.
If this wave were to develop, a west to west-northwest track towards the Caribbean remains most likely at this time.
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