11 AM EDT Advisory Info: As of the 11 AM EDT advisory, Irma was a category 3 hurricane, located 16.8 degrees north 53.3 degrees west, with maximum sustained winds of 120mph and a minimum central pressure of 944 millibars, and was moving west-south at 14mph.
Track Forecast (next 5 days): Irma is still expected to track near or over parts of the Lesser Antilles Wednesday and Thursday, and into the Bahamas Friday and Saturday.
Potential US Landfall: It now appears likely that a trough of low pressure forecast to dig into the Eastern US Wednesday will lift out quickly, allowing the Bermuda high to nose back into the Southeast US (a scenario that we stated was possible in our tropical update Saturday). This would cause Irma to continue west to west-northwest, either near or into the Florida Straits or Cuba late this weekend, increasing the threat of a landfall in South Florida as well as a potential track into the Southeast/Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, it is important to note that the trough could still lift out more gradually, resulting in a track towards the East Coast and even out to sea.
Intensity Forecast (next 5 Days): Irma will continue to strengthen through the next 2 – 3 days — as environmental conditions will remain favorable for intensification — with Irma expected to be a category 4 hurricane with 145mph winds when it passes near or over the Leeward Islands. However, eye wall replacement cycles are still expected to cause some brief fluctuations in intensity.
Then, during the 3 – 5 day time frame, Irma will likely level off in intensity slightly, but still remain a powerful category 4 hurricane. However, Irma could weaken more if a track into Hispaniola or Cuba occurs.
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