Irma intensified into a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds this afternoon, making it the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
11 PM EDT Advisory Info: As of the 11 PM EDT advisory, Irma had maximum sustained winds of 185mph, a minimum central pressure of 916 millibars, and was moving west-northwest at 15mph.
Forecast Track: The track forecast for Irma is fairly certain through Friday, but becomes less certain by this weekend.
Irma will generally track west-northwest along the southern periphery of a ridge of high pressure, into the Southern Bahamas, by Thursday and Friday ( likely very close to, or potentially over, the Greater Antilles Islands).
By Saturday, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the Southeast U.S. and erode the ridge some, causing Irma to turn north. But where that turn takes place (which will dictate where Irma makes landfall) remains unknown, as it will depend on the exact timing and position of the shortwave.
Bottom line: A track towards the Eastern Gulf Coast, directly up the Peninsula of Florida, and a track up the Southeast U.S. Coast (include the East Coast of Florida) all remain possible.
Intensity Forecast: Conditions will remain conducive for Irma to maintain category 4 or 5 status through this weekend, and potentially beyond, depending on where Irma ultimately tracks.
Impacts: It is still a bit too early to discuss specific impacts from Irma. However, if Irma does make landfall in Florida (wherever that may be) this weekend, catastrophic, life threatening impacts (life threatening storm surge and extremely high winds etc…) will occur, with hurricane force winds potentially impacting the entire peninsula depending on Irma’s track and wind field.
Model Guidance (ECMWF and GFS): Both the GFS and ECMWF agree that Irma will remains a major hurricane (a category 4 -5 to be specific). However, they disagree on where Irma will track.
The GFS takes Irma up the East Coast of Florida this weekend, and then into Georgia/ South Carolina early next week.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF takes Irma up the West Coast of Florida, with many of its ensembles taking Irma up the Florida Peninsula, up the West Coast of Florida, or into the Easter Gulf.
For now, the National Hurricane Center is siding with the ECMWF, stating in their 11 PM EDT forecast discussion that the GFS seems to be “a northeast outlier.”
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