Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen was upgraded to Tropical Depression Fifteen this afternoon, and has since been upgraded (again) to Tropical Storm Maria.
5 PM EDT Advisory Info: As of the 5 PM EDT advisory, Maria had maximum sustained winds of 50mph, a minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars, and was moving west at a fairly fast clip of 20mph.
Forecast Track (next 5 days): A ridge of a high pressure will likely steer Maria west-northwestward through the next 5 days, meaning a track across the portions of the Lesser Antilles Monday/Tuesday and across portions of the Greater Antilles late next week remains likely.
Intensity Forecast (next 5 days): Maria is likely to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow or Monday, and eventually a major hurricane, as environmental conditions are (and will remain) very conducive for strengthening. The potential is also there for rapid intensification.
Extended Range: looking out into the extended range, it appears likely that there will be a pattern in place in about 7 – 10 days that will favor ridging (high pressure) over the Eastern U.S. that would prevent Maria from hooking northeast out to sea.
However, a track out to sea still can’t be ruled out, as there is a possibility that Jose will still be meandering over the North Atlantic by that time. This would cause a weakness in ridge allowing Maria to track out to sea.
That being said, it is too early to determine with any degree of certainty if Maria will be a threat to the U.S. or not.
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