Maria rapidly intensified into a category 5 hurricane this evening, made landfall on the Island of Dominica tonight with maximum sustained winds of 160mph, and is now headed for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
11 PM EDT Advisory Info: As of the 11 PM EDT advisory, Maria had maximum sustained winds of 160mph, a minimum central pressure of 924 millibars, and was moving west-northwest at 9mph.
Forecast Track (next 5 days): A ridge of a high pressure will continue to steer Maria west-northwestward through the next 2 – 3 days. This will bring Maria near (or more likely over) the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late tomorrow into Wednesday, and over or just north of Hispaniola late Wednesday into Thursday. Maria will then enter the Eastern Bahamas Thursday into Friday, and likely begin to turn more northward, as the ridge currently steering Maria should weaken.
Intensity Forecast (next 5 days): Maria will remain in a low shear environment for at least the next day or two, and should maintain category 4 – 5 intensity while moving over or near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. However, after that time wind shear will begin to increase some, which should induce some weakening as Maria moves into the Southwest Atlantic in the vicinity of the Bahamas.
Impacts: Devastating to potentially catastrophic impacts are likely across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Extended Range: looking out into the extended range, it appears likely that there will be a pattern in place this weekend into early next week that will favor ridging (high pressure) over the Eastern U.S. that could prevent Maria from hooking northeast out to sea.
However, a track out to sea still can’t be ruled out, as there is a possibility that Jose will still be meandering over the North Atlantic by that time. This would cause a weakness in ridge allowing Maria to track out to sea.
That being said, it is too early to determine with any degree of certainty if Maria will be a threat to the U.S. or not. Although, we can say with some degree of confidence that Maria will not track into the Gulf of Mexico.
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