Invest 99L has potential to develop off of Florida’s East Coast this weekend. There is also a chance for some tropical mischief in the Northwest Caribbean next week.
Invest 99L
At the moment, Invest 99L is nothing more than a surface trough located over Cuba and the Florida Straits, producing a broad area of convective activity with the aid of an upper-level low over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Chance of Development: However, environmental conditions currently appear generally conducive for at least some development of 99L, and look to remain conducive through Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center placed the 2-day and 5-day development odds at 40% and 50% in their 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook.
Track and Intensity: Invest 99L will track north along or just off of Florida’s East Coast through this weekend, and then turn west into the Florida Peninsula early next week.
If development occurs, a low-end tropical storm is the most likely outcome, as environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for intensification by Monday/Tuesday.
Impacts: The primary impact from 99L (regardless of development) will be 2 – 4″ of rainfall across portions of the Florida Peninsula this weekend.
Potential Caribbean Development
The Northwest Caribbean will need to be closely monitored for tropical development next week.
A large, expansive ridge of high pressure is expected to be in place across the Eastern U.S. and parts of the Central U.S., causing barometric pressures to lower in the Caribbean.
The lowering barometric pressures combined with two other features (a tropical wave and monsoonal gyre) could cause a tropical cyclone to form in the Northwest Caribbean mid to late next week — something that model guidance has been hinting at for some time.
If something were to develop, it is too early to know where the system would go or how strong it might become.
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