October 5, 2017, 10:30 PM EDT – Invest 90-l was upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen yesterday, which intensified into Tropical Storm Nate this morning.
5 PM EDT Advisory Info: As of the 5 PM EDT advisory, Nate was located over Eastern Honduras with maximum sustained winds of 40mph, a minimum central pressure of 1000 millibars, and was moving north-northwest at 10mph.
Forecast Track: While there is still time for some minor shifts east or west, model guidance is in good agreement on where Nate will track.
Based on the latest track guidance and National Hurricane Center forecast track, Nate will continue on a north-northwest trajectory for the next day to day and a half, tracking over the Northwest Caribbean tomorrow, making a second landfall in the Northeast Yucatan Peninsula again late tomorrow, before emerging into the Southern Gulf of Mexico early Saturday.
A turn to the north and increase in forward speed is then expected late Saturday over the Central Gulf.
Nate will then continue to move north up until landfall, which will most likely occur between Morgan City, Louisiana and Mobile, Alabama late Saturday or during the day Sunday.
Forecast Intensity: Nate will be in a favorable, moist, low shear environment with warm sea surface temperatures until landfall, meaning intensification into a hurricane (likely a category 1 or possibly low-end category 2) on Saturday is likely.
Impacts: Storm surge, torrential rainfall, and tropical storm force winds will occur from the Western Florida Panhandle to Southeast Louisiana, with the worst impacts being in Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi, where hurricane conditions (including hurricane force winds) will occur.
Tornadoes will also be possible in the outer rain bands.
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