Tropical Development Remains Possible in West Caribbean

A broad area of low pressure formed over the Southwest Caribbean Monday and was designated Invest 93-L yesterday.

Invest 93-L was still located over the Southwest Caribbean as of Wednesday morning, but will lift into the Northwest Caribbean and Southeast Gulf of Mexico Friday and Saturday, where it will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

Model Guidance

Of the three reliable models used for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, only the UKMET is showing development of Invest 93-L. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep 93-L as a broad, weak area of low pressure.

Development Potential

Development of Invest 93-L is unlikely over the next day or two due to land interaction with Central America. However, it will have about a chance to develop Friday and Saturday when it lifts into the Northwest Caribbean and extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico, as there will be little land interaction, and environmental conditions will be conducive to development.

As of their 8 AM EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center placed the chance of Invest 93-L developing over the next 5 days at 40 percent, respectively.

If 93-L develops and attains tropical storm intensity, it would be named Philippe.

Potential Track, Intensity

Invest 93-L will get pulled north across the Northwest Caribbean Friday, and then north-northeast across South Florida this weekend, eventually getting absorbed into a large upper level trough over the Eastern half of the country on Sunday and into Monday.

It is uncertain how strong 93-l will become if development occurs. Though, guidance currently suggests it would be a weak, unorganized tropical storm at most.

Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall will be likely across most of South Florida from Invest 93-L this weekend regardless of development, with rainfall accumulations of 5 – 6″ likely, as it will bring plume of deep tropical moisture into South Florida.