Cold(er) arctic air is going to filter into the Gulf Coast region tomorrow night into early next week.
A trough is going to dig into the Central/Eastern part of the country tomorrow, bringing a cold front east across the entire Gulf Coast in tandem with it.
Some rain and storms will be likely along the front tomorrow, but severe weather is unlikely; much colder air will settle in behind it, dropping temperatures well below normal – likely by at least 4 to 8 degrees (Fahrenheit).
The coldest night/morning will be Sunday night going into Monday morning, with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 30s to lower to mid 40s for most of the North- Central Gulf Coast. Lower 30s will be likely across Northern Mississippi and Alabama.
Thanksgiving Day
Model guidance continues to advertise an upper-level cut-off low to develop on Wednesday, but over the Western Gulf of Mexico now rather than over Texas.
From there they project it to slowly drift east over the North or Central Gulf of Mexico through Friday, and for a surface low to develop in association with it. Then, on Saturday, they forecast the upper-level low to retrograde to the south, and for the surface low to eject to the east-northeast or east, across the Florida Panhandle or Peninsula.
If this were to occur, it could result in widespread rain and storms across portions of the North-Central Gulf Coast from Thursday through Friday, and across the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. However, what locations see wet weather (assuming the low(s) develop) would depend on where they develop, their positioning, and their track.
There is still some uncertainty, though. We will need to see if models stay consistent with this solution to become confident in it coming to fruition.
In regard to temperatures, there will be a gradual moderation Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there are now indications that cold front will sweep east Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing another intrusion of cold, arctic air.
There is still some uncertainty, but If this occurs, it will result would result in below average temperatures Thanksgiving Day right into Friday and Saturday (excluding the Florida Peninsula).
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