Arctic Blast This Week

Frigid, arctic air is going to invade this week due to a pattern change.

A potent upper-level trough is going to dig in and establish itself over the Central and Eastern parts of the country Tuesday – Wednesday, bringing two much colder air-masses.

Tuesday – Wednesday: 

The aforementioned upper-level trough is going to swing a strong arctic front east.

Forecast rainfall totals through next Sunday. (Source: Pivotal Weather)

Some wet, unsettled weather will be likely ahead of and along the front from East Texas to the Florida Panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday. Some thunderstorms will be likely, but severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday – Friday: 

Once the front passes, a much colder air-mass will settle in its wake, which will drop temperatures well below normal.

ECMWF Projected low temperatures overnight Thursday/Friday morning. (Source: Weather.us)

North-Central Gulf Coast: Initially, temperatures will drop about 4 – 10 degrees (Fahrenheit) below seasonal levels Wednesday through Friday. Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s to around 40 overnight Wednesday/Thursday morning, and again overnight Thursday/Friday morning. Highs will generally be in the 50s from Wednesday through Friday.

North-Central Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama; East Texas:  Temperatures will  drop lower across lower across East Texas and North-Central Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s will be likely overnight Wednesday/Thursday morning, and again overnight Thursday/Friday morning.

This weekend into early next week: 

Overnight Friday , a second, colder air-mass will arrive; it will reinforce the first, likely causing temperatures to drop the lowest they have this season thus far. Although, there is still some uncertainty regarding just how low temperatures will fall.

ECMWF projected low temperatures for Saturday night/Sunday morning. (Source: Weather.us)

North-Central Gulf Coast: Currently, model guidance suggests temperatures will run 10 – 15 degrees below average across much of the North-Central Gulf Coast Region Saturday through at least Monday.

Assuming that guidance is correct, lows in the lower to mid 30s would be likely each morning,  with highs generally in the 50s.

North-Central Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama; East Texas: Guidance suggests temperatures will run 10 – 20 degrees below average Saturday through Monday.

The coldest temperatures will occur across North-Central Alabama and Mississippi, where lows will range from the lower to mid 20s to lower 30s, each night/morning, with highs ranging from the lower 40s to around 50.

Across North-Central Louisiana and East Texas, lows will range from the mid to upper 30s to lower to mid 40s each night/morning, with high ranging from the mid 50s to lower to mid 60s.

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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