Tonight
There is a threat for some strong to severe storms across a small portion of the upper Texas Gulf Coast area — mainly around Houston/Beaumont, north of I-10, where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has hatched a level 1 (marginal) risk for severe weather — and Northwest and Central Louisiana tonight, where the Storm Prediction Center has hatched both a level 1 risk area and level 2 (slight) risk area.
Set up: An upper-level disturbance is going to arrive later this evening. Lift from the disturbance combined with moisture ahead of a surface front and dryline will cause storms to develop this evening across Central/East Texas, and some scattered storms across the upper Texas Gulf Coast, the former of which will congeal into a squall line.
Timing: The squall line will develop over Central/East Texas early this evening, and push into and across Northwest and Central Louisiana overnight (time frame is 12:00 AM – 6:00 AM CST). Scattered storms will develop along the upper Texas Gulf Coast during the same time period.
Threats: The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 40 – 60mph. A brief, weak isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.
Tomorrow
The threat for some strong to severe storms will shift east into parts of South Mississippi, South and Central Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle. The SPC has hatched a level 1 (marginal) risk area.
Set up: The disturbance is going to move accelerate off to the north and east, meaning the squall line will break apart early tomorrow morning. The front will continue to advance east, with moisture ahead of it combined with some instability allowing additional storms to develop later in the day into the evening.
Timing: From about 4:00 AM – 10:00/11:00 AM CST, the squall will continue to advance east, moving across Eastern Louisiana and breaking up as it does so, with what is left pushing into South and Central Mississippi. Storms will redevelop along and ahead of the front, across parts of Southeast Mississippi and South and Central Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle, during the second half of the day into the evening hours.
Threats: Like tonight, the main threat with any stronger storms tomorrow will be damaging wind gusts up to 40 – 60mph.
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