A slow moving storm system is going to track out of the Southwest and across the South through this upcoming week, bringing an attendant front with it, resulting in an active, unsettled weather pattern.
Heavy Rain
Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico Moisture will be advected (drawn) north, and will cause storms (possibly a squall line) to develop and slowly progress across Central/East Texas Monday through Tuesday; East/South Texas, Louisiana, and West Mississippi Wednesday; and Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Thursday/early Friday.
At the minimum locally heavy rain is likely. The latest QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Outlook) from the Weather Prediction Center is calling for rainfall accumulations of 2 – 3″ from East Texas through North/Central Alabama.
The QPF forecast also calls for accumulations of 3 – 5″ from North Louisiana into North Mississippi and Northeast Alabama.
Flash flooding will be possible.
Severe Weather
Wind shear and moderate CAPE (instability) being portrayed by model guidance suggests that there will be a threat for severe weather in addition to the heavy rain and flash flood potential.
Monday: A few severe storms will be possible across North/Central Texas. The SPC has defined a “slight risk” for severe weather.
Tuesday: Severe storms will be possible from Central into Northeast Texas.
Wednesday: Severe storms will again be possible, this time across South Texas, Louisiana, and much of Mississippi.
The SPC has defined a 15% (“slight”) risk area for both Tuesday and Wednesday (see figure 1).
Thursday/early Friday: The threat for severe weather will shift east, into the remainder of Mississippi, and possibly parts of Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
It is too early to determine specifics (threats, exact timing, etc.). As of now, all modes of severe weather look possible. If a squall line evolves, the primary threat would likely be damaging straight-line winds.
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